Thursday, 7 August 2014

chapter-18 Introduction to Random Variables

Suppose that a random experiment consists of tossing two dice, and the quantity of interest is the sum of the numbers on the two dice. Let us denote this sum by X.
X will be termed a random variable of this experiment and it can take one of these possible values: 2,3,4,\ldots ,12.Consider another random experiment wherein we toss a coin a 100 times and we are interested in the number of Heads obtained, which is again a random variable of this experiment, with one of these possible values: 0,1,2,\ldots 100
Of course, an experiment can have many random variables associated with it. For example, for the coin tossing experiment above, we can have so many possible random variables.
{X_1} : No. of tails
{X_2} : No. of Heads - No. of Tails
{X_3} : The no. of tosses in the largest consecutive sequence of Heads
\vdots
etc
Thus, we see that a random variable is a way of assigning to each outcome of the experiment, a single real number, which will vary with different outcomes of the experiment. So far, so good.
Now, we will try to understand what the probability distribution of a random variable means.
Consider once again the random experiment of rolling two dice and observing the sum of the numbers on the two dice, which we denoted by X. X can take a multitude of values in the following ways:
XOutcome(s) which gives this X
2(1,1)
3(1,2)\,(2,1)
4(1,3)\,(2,2)\,(3,1)
5(1,4)\,(2,3)\,(3,2)\,(4,1)
6(1,5)\,(2,4)\,(3,3)\,(4,2)\,(5,1)
7(1,6)\,(2,5)\,(3,4)\,(4,3)\,(5,2)\,(6,1)
8(2,6)\,(3,5)\,(4,4)\,(5,3)\,(6,2)
9(3,6)\,(4,5)\,(5,4)\,(6,3)
10(4,6)\,(5,5)\,(6,4)
11(5,6)\,(6,5)
12(6,6)
Each value of X has a certain probability of being obtained. For example
P(X = 5) = \dfrac{{{\rm{No}}\,{\rm{.}}\;{\rm{of\, outcomes \,for \,which\, }}X\,{\rm{  =  5}}}}{{{\rm{Total\, No\,}}{\rm{. of\, outcomes}}}}
 = \dfrac{4}{{36}}
 = \dfrac{1}{9}
Let us plot the probabilities for each value of X:
This table gives us what is known as the probability distribution (PD)  of X, that is, it is a description of how the “probability is distributed” across different values of the random variable. In simple words, the PD of any random variable(RV) X tells us how probable each value of the RV is.
The sum of the various probabilities in a PD must be 1, as should be obvious. This fact you are urged to confirm for the last table.
Let us write down another PD as an example.

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